Zachary P. Malosh, MS, MBA
Next Project Idea - League Strength by Transfer Network
Determine the strength of a league based on the leagues that its teams perform transfers with. In general, leagues would be expected to perform transfers with similar-level leagues.
- Assume league A has many transactions with league B, so leagues A and B have a strong relationship.
- Assume league B has many transactions with league C, so leagues B and C have a strong relationship.
- If leagues A and C have a weak relationship, B is similar to A and C but A is not similar to C. This would be interpreted as the league strengths being ordered as A > B > C or C > B > A. Relationships with other leagues would be required to determine which order is appropriate.
By assuming that the “Big 5” leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) will be at or near the top of the rankings, the rest of the leagues should fall into place based on the relationship strength between leagues.
The goal would be to create a single numeric value to allow for comparison between leagues and, ultimately, create a league power ranking.
The following are considerations for this analysis. Inclusion of all considerations may not be practical in the final analysis.
- Transfers vs Loans vs Free Transfers - How do each contribute to the strength of the relationship between leagues?
- Is loan-to-transfer another transfer type?
- Is sign-and-loan another transfer type?
- How frequently is a player loaned back to his pre-transfer team? (Giroud from Tours to Montpellier)
- What is the league for teams transitioning between leagues?
- Would 2019 Fulham be EPL, Championship, or some fraction of both?
- Are promotion and relegation treated the same? If going down, a team may be more likely to sell off players when compared to the buying practices of teams being promoted.
- Geographic considerations - teams may tend to transact with leagues near them
- How do same-country transactions count? What about same-league transactions?
- Are there distance considerations? It is assumed to be easier to scout other teams near you, especially on a limited budget.
- Do transactions between culturally similar countries count less?
- Will former USSR countries transact more with Russia due to cultural similarities?
- Will countries speaking the same language transact more?
- Do these similarities reduce the significance of transactions or have no impact?
- Are individual teams inclined to make international/distanced transactions?
- ex: Athletic Bilbao generally won’t be dealing outside of Basque Country
- Academies/B-Teams - large teams with academies/B-teams will have more players with skill levels not consistent with the top-flight team. How do those lower-level transactions count when viewed from the parent organization?
- Playing Time - players with more playing time/appearances are likely to better represent league strength. The skills of highly-used players better represent the quality of the league they are playing in.
- Are playing times while on loan helpful to determine difference in level?
- Does an increase in playing time show the new team is at a lower level?
- Age Considerations
- Players may tend to play closer to home at the start and end of their careers
- Some leagues may target sunsetting players (Süper Lig, MLS, Chinese Super League)
- FIFA regulations regarding targeting of young talent may impact targeted distance